This article is daily technical analysis from Ray Shen.
The fed’s forecast to keep interest rates unchanged for the full year of 2020 triggered a sell-off among dollar bulls, while the weaker U.S. inflation data added to the bearish pressure on the dollar index. The U.S. dollar index rebounded strongly after President Donald trump gave a positive signal about the weekend’s trade talks with China, with all three U.S. stock indexes hitting record highs.
The us dollar index has strong support below 97.00, and the short-term pressure above is around the 200-day moving average of 97.60, and then above the pressure at the 98.00 integer pass.
The decision was followed by a press conference by the President of the European central bank Christine lagarde, who left rates unchanged as expected. The ECB said interest rates would stay at current levels or lower until it came close to its inflation target, and that QE would continue to buy bonds at a rate of €20bn a month shortly before the first rate rise. The ECB’s policy statement made no reference to the policy review.
The euro fell back against the dollar, with upward pressure still in the 200-day moving average range of 1.1150 to 1.1160, short-term support below 1.1100, and support below around 1.1050.
The Swiss national bank (SNB) held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.75 percent in December, in line with expectations. The SNB said the global economic slowdown was clear, the Swiss franc remained high and stood ready to intervene in the market if needed.
Below the Swiss franc support at 0.9800 line, above the short-term pressure at 0.9900, and then above the pressure at 200 average 0.9950.
Gold present roller coaster yesterday, by the fed to raise interest rates in 2020, prospects, and PPI inflation data was less than expected in the United States, us initial jobless claims surged to record more than two years, the dollar index dropped a new low for 1 month, the influence of the gold plate was once rushed up to 1486, but then the trump for the optimistic attitude of China’s trade negotiations over the weekend, gold plate dropped $20.
At present, the general trend of gold price is expected to range volatility, anxious between 1460 and 1480, then support around 1450 below, above around 1490.
Oil prices, which fell sharply on Wednesday on an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories, stabilized on Thursday after OPEC said there would be a supply shortfall next year. While extreme weather events could affect oil demand, oil prices could rise sharply in 2020 thanks to new rules from the international maritime organization (IMO) for 2020 and OPEC’s commitment to limit supply, the agency said.
New York crude oil again fell to the high, the short-term pressure on the top is still at the 60.00 integer mark, and then the pressure on the top is around 62.00, the short-term support on the bottom is 58.00, and then the support on the bottom is around 56.00.
PS: Today focus
21:30 U.S. monthly retail sales rate in November (%)
21:30 monthly rate of us import price index for November (%)
The above views are for reference only, not for ordering basis. Investment is risky, so proceed with caution.