The insane bull run looks like it’s over. This is a channel which held from April 2017. When it was broken upwards, we went to 20k. And now it has broken down. Bitcoin moving back into the channel should have been enough of a warning signal, but most of us were in denial.
I’m not saying that it can’t bounce from here. But the possibility looks bleak. All the supports formed last year have been broken. Some people expected a bounce when RSI touched 30, but it was a weak bounce(last green candle). RSI in oversold territory usually means a buy signal but there’s no strength in the bounces. 200 day MA was also broken through.
This might be the beginning of a bear market, but I’m still on the lookout for a reversal.
Major resistance is at 10k and 12.5k, but those lines are very steep. A break above 10k would be very reassuring and a break of 12.5k would put us back in an uptrend.
The drop was too fast, almost as fast as the rise to 20k. So we should be seeing a bounce here, but it might or might not be a reversal. Many people are stuck holding bags, and a bounce will be sold and shorted heavily. A reversal can only come when the bounce reaches fomo levels.
Here is an optimistic chart –
Ripple is repeating the pattern from the last pump. It’s on its way downwards and an excellent short right now. But remember that a slight bounce in btc pumps up the ratio too.
These lines should hold and lower, steeper descending lines will form in the coming days. I’m placing stops above these lines.
Ethereum is in a strong long term uptrend.
However, the short term uptrend was interrupted by the btc crash. Unless btc makes a recovery and goes into consolidation, Eth doesn’t look too good of a buy for a trade.
Support is at 0.088 and 0.0825. A break below that would be a sell signal.
Litecoin is roughly in a huge flag. A break above 0.022 would mean a strong rally is incoming and would require a good fundamental development.
Ltc is in another smaller flag with resistance at 0.02.
Monero is in a nice uptrend and with strong fundamentals. However, the short term uptrend was broken and buying now is only good if you want to accumulate for the long term and don’t care about smaller movements.
I will update this with some more ideas and altcoins, but there’s not really much to say right now. And neither are there many trading opportunities. Altcoins are at a high anyway and I feel they can be bought for better prices in some time. Most the the altcoin markets depend on BTC and a violent movement in BTC can change the condition of altcoins at any moment.
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Weekly Analysis was originally published in cryptomarketsindia on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.